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changing prices of swm Options
AdmiralMotti89
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 6:15:28 AM
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Joined: 7/29/2009
Posts: 496
Location: Nebraska



Mickey wrote:
I've been watching ebay on swm for over a year now. I know what I could get certain figs for and what they are going for now. The prices have dropped on most pieces.


Where is the evidence? I guess if you say the prices have dropped that'd technically be true, but only in that there was a big drop right after the announcement. But that doesn't look like what you meant. The evidence shows that prices are at least on their way back up from that crash. Saying you've observed ebay for a year and that you know what's going on isn't evidence. This is:

I've taken the last 10 VR's I bought on ebay (this was all within a week after the announcement) and compared them to what the pieces are going for now. Current prices are in parenthesis rounded to the nearest .25. Look in the completed listings, where actual evidence is available, and all of a sudden your story holds no water.

Argyus 8.25 (12, 8.5, 11)
Kyle JBM 3@ $5 ea. (11)
Mand. Ind. 3@$7.5 ea. (21)
Quinlan Inf. 7.50 (9.5, 15)
Darth Sion 16, 15 (22.5, 36)
Jedi Exile 7.5, 7 (6.25, 12, 9.5, 10, 8.75)
Thronepalps 13.25 (19, 16.25, 15.5)
Jango BH 19.75 (32, 28, 29, 23)
VAR 9.75 (12, 15, 10.5, 15.5, 8.5, 3.5 (note the 3.5 is from over 2 weeks ago)
Boba Fett (RS) 6.5 (19.5, 20)
Malak Dlots 2@ 14.5 (23, 13.5, 14.5, 20.5)

Mickey wrote:
V-sets, in my opinion, are not going to raise prices.


Why? Where's the evidence? Look at the other game to have V-sets. Can you honestly say that the V-sets had no effect on demand? It's OK if you don't know anything about the SWCCG v-sets, but that doesn't make the evidence they provide go away. Heck, I had a ton of the introductory two-player game unique characters that I was able to trade for great cards after the V-set came out, since the card became useful, where before, they were practically toilet paper for a player.

Look at what Luke JK, a near-useless piece is going for now. $2-4 on ebay? (there were only two auctions recently) What will happen when he becomes useful in a V-set? Do you honestly think that the price won't change significantly? Now, I'm not saying he will go up to Palpatine prices, but a more useful piece is in more demand. Care to share proof as to why that's wrong? A more demanded piece has a higher price. Any proof to the contrary? A significant number of people are interested in using v-sets. (Go to gamers, you'll see that's true as well.)
yodaccm
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 6:23:06 AM
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Joined: 12/17/2008
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All counter arguments to my original post are valid and it's gives me more of a perspective on the game as a whole. I collect the mini's that I want, I've never considered collecting the entire catalogue of figures. It's never been a problem for me to get my hands on those figs. that are highly sought after. However, there must be some recognition of the irony of holding a figure in your hand that, say a year ago was worth $1 and has suddenly sky rocketed up to $50 (this is an exaggeration, of course). I mean, first and foremost, for me at least, what I see on the actual, official printed card makes the mini, (A'Sharad Hett is a huge exception, as I'm sure are a few other examples) but I understand the idea that the community creates the demand for figures and hence affects the price. But like others have noted, this is being taken into consideration and it is a fact of collecting.

Thanks for the (highly) spirited discussion. And, please, for those of us who are "weekend" warrior types and aren't involved in the game as much as others, please allow us some leeway or understanding in our opinions. That is all I ask for when I post on these forums, it will make people feel more comfortable in voicing their views. That's what these forums are about, right? An equal voice for all?

So should I go ahead and buy Princess Leia, Captive in anticipation of things to come? =) Now I take my leave.

AdmiralMotti89
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 6:53:11 AM
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
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Joined: 7/29/2009
Posts: 496
Location: Nebraska
yodaccm wrote:

So should I go ahead and buy Princess Leia, Captive in anticipation of things to come?




I would.

In fact, I just did, a few weeks ago, for under $2.00. Now is the time to get the crappy figures before their alternate options make them more worthwhile to have, IMO.
kezzamachine
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 12:12:34 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2008
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I for one am looking forward to the new ideas that are coming. Go everyone!
Mickey
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 12:15:32 PM
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Joined: 2/9/2009
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Location: Southern Illinois
Where have I posted anything that suggests your "truth". Your statements are pure conjecture. How Carl feels is his business and what you posted is not stuff I have heard in discussions at our shop. We have discussed how things went down after the announcement over the end of the game, but it was never discussed by anyone that we hate your "group". In fact, Jim is part of your "group" if I'm not mistaken and he is very well liked by everyone at our venue. I also posted support for what was going on at Gamers the day it came out because I think it is important what the "group" is doing to keep the national scene going. I have made no bones about me being more of a casual player than a competitive player so my involvement at Gamers would do no one any good. So I choose not to participate over there.

I think I made my feelings about you perfectly clear in my last email correspondence some weeks ago. As for Dean, I have no personal feelings to express and have not had enough contact with him to justify any opinions. So as usual Bill, you want to make this into a personal thing since someone does not support something you like. That's fairly usual for you. Attack anyone that disagrees with you.

I stated it perfectly clear why I don't like the v-set idea. I also collect so new cards for old figs do nothing for me. I also don't like the idea of having to replace my existing cards with new ones. So if for some reason competitve play adopts these v-sets then I will choose to sit out of competitve play and play strictly casually. That's my choice and I don't see how that should matter to anyone.

As for my opinion on v-sets not affecting prices of those figs, it is just that, an opinion. All we can do is wait and see when the first set comes out. I'm more than willing to eat my words if the v-sets do indeed increase the value of those figs that normally do not get game play. I wasn't the one that attacked anyone on here about the idea just because I didn't agree with them.
discgolfphil
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 12:39:34 PM
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Joined: 1/11/2010
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You're arguing over Star Wars Miniatures. Seriously? Come on guys. You're both entitled to your own opinions. Whatever happens after Masters of the Force is going to happen whether you agree with it or not. So stop arguing, enjoy the game, and either use the v-sets to follow or don't. Stop the childishness.
AdmiralMotti89
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 12:42:48 PM
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Joined: 7/29/2009
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Location: Nebraska
Mickey wrote:

As for my opinion on v-sets not affecting prices of those figs, it is just that, an opinion. All we can do is wait and see when the first set comes out. I'm more than willing to eat my words if the v-sets do indeed increase the value of those figs that normally do not get game play. I wasn't the one that attacked anyone on here about the idea just because I didn't agree with them.


I recommend Cholula Chili Garlic hot sauce. It adds both heat and flavor, even to words! Flapper

But more seriously, I didn't go after your statements just because they were disagreeable. It was because your claims were based on A. No information at all. B. Fabricated information or C. extremely selelective data.

Whether you meant to or not, your statements (at least about price) are misleading from anyhting that resembles reality.
greentime
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 1:10:29 PM
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One thing to note, although some SWCCG prices have gone up, most have not. Yes there are cards like Imperial Atrocity, which went from being functionally worthless to a $20 card after Imperial Atrocity(v) came out, but there are also cards like Darth Vader, DLOTS or Lord Vader or Cloud City Boba Fett which were $20 or much more at one point and no longer are. Yes a box of Coruscant or Reflections III is going to get you back ~$300. But a box of Jabba's Palace is like $12 (that's for 60 packs!), and Cloud City and Dagobah are not much more. Minis will almost certainly work out the same way. Most pieces will drop in value quite a bit. Some will increase, especially pieces that go from being super-junk to very good. The price of an IE case will probably plummet, but the price of a CS case will increase.

Prices are not going to go up across the board; they will mostly go down, with some outliers. Over the long run case prices will start to inch back up, but only for sets where there is not that much material available. And unless this last set turns out to be as, let's say prematurely released as Reflections III, Coruscant, or Theed Palace, we will not see real product scarcity for some time.

To the people who intend to keep playing after Wizards stops producing new pieces, I recommend picking up pieces that are old and good. Doombot, Mas Amedda, Ugnaught Demos, square-base Leia, Wicket, UH Lobot, GGDAC, Lancers, that sort of thing. Don't worry as much about the new stuff -- there is so much of it available in comparison that prices should stay in the basement for a long time.
AdmiralMotti89
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 1:56:44 PM
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Joined: 7/29/2009
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greentime wrote:
One thing to note, although some SWCCG prices have gone up, most have not. Yes there are cards like Imperial Atrocity, which went from being functionally worthless to a $20 card after Imperial Atrocity(v) came out, but there are also cards like Darth Vader, DLOTS or Lord Vader or Cloud City Boba Fett which were $20 or much more at one point and no longer are. Yes a box of Coruscant or Reflections III is going to get you back ~$300. But a box of Jabba's Palace is like $12 (that's for 60 packs!), and Cloud City and Dagobah are not much more. Minis will almost certainly work out the same way. Most pieces will drop in value quite a bit. Some will increase, especially pieces that go from being super-junk to very good. The price of an IE case will probably plummet, but the price of a CS case will increase.

Prices are not going to go up across the board; they will mostly go down, with some outliers. Over the long run case prices will start to inch back up, but only for sets where there is not that much material available. And unless this last set turns out to be as, let's say prematurely released as Reflections III, Coruscant, or Theed Palace, we will not see real product scarcity for some time.

To the people who intend to keep playing after Wizards stops producing new pieces, I recommend picking up pieces that are old and good. Doombot, Mas Amedda, Ugnaught Demos, square-base Leia, Wicket, UH Lobot, GGDAC, Lancers, that sort of thing. Don't worry as much about the new stuff -- there is so much of it available in comparison that prices should stay in the basement for a long time.


The Jabba's palace example is not because those cards suck (even though most of the non V ones do), but because that set is just so mass produced. I saw jabba's palace almost everywhere, even at Meijer, where I never saw SWCCG before or since. It's almost as if any demand would have no significant effect because it's simply so ubiquitous. JP was around $25 back when the game was still in print.

I don't think anyone said prices will go up across the board. Honestly, right now, the old pieces are still pretty expensive. Take Boba Merc for example. Once we get a new card for RS Boba, Merc will likely be a little less important to get. Now, I wouldn't recommend going out and buying old figures at any price, you need to get I good deal i'd hope. But it makes no sense to me to recommend the currently good figures who will be replaced to some degree by alternate versions of their older incarnations, when those older incarnations can be bought before the price spike, and many of the current good ones (somewhat replaced in the future) will go down. Now, there are some current good ones that will only get better (Uggies, Mice, Storm Commandos), but if there is a significant increase in the utility of old pieces, they will go up, and the other options will likely go down. Also remember that there really aren't any more Luke JK's than Emperor Palpatines, especially when Luke JK becomes useful as well.
Mickey
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 1:59:24 PM
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Joined: 2/9/2009
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@AdmiralMotti89: My determination on the pricing is from watching prices last year religiously. Until we completed our collection I was buying figs from ebay every week. I was watching the max in my queue (200 I think) at all times. I was buying R/VR pieces and using them as trade stock here. Yes my post was made from my opinion. I do not have any spread sheets where I tracked the prices as proof. When I look at your prices I can tell right off the ones in () are prices on BIN's. BIN's do not reflect the prices that pieces actually sell for on a final bid. So giving that as reference does not really reflect going prices. I will take one piece as a reference though from your list. You show

Darth Sion 16, 15 (22.5, 36)

So you bought not one but two Darth Sion's last week for under $20. That was one of my hardest pieces to obtain. I ended up having to trade for it here because it regularly did not sell for much less than $25 last year on bid and was always listed at $30-35 on BIN. Of course if you watch ebay enough you can almost always find one that slips through the cracks for a sweet deal. I admit I have only been sporatically watching ebay lately to try to pick up filler army pieces. I have browsed lots for sale and at first glance for me it seems prices have dropped since last year. That's all I can say on it. But to accuse me of lying or making up information is just not right. That is what you did. You have also not offered any proof yourself all through this argmuent. It's kind of pointless to argue this anyway as it makes no difference to me if prices drop to things being given away. I don't plan to sell my stuff--ever. I have games I had 30 years ago.

Also @Bill as I thought about this more I find your reply completely disrespectful to me and the group I play with. I don't even know who you are refering to in our group. A good majority of them participate at Gamers. I have quite a few people I know that participate over there that I call friends. I don't even use the word hate in reference to people. I never even said that to you if I remember correctly. We also don't sit around our venue and discuss much outside actual game play. So us sitting around talking about you kind of makes me laugh that you think you are so important to us we would discuss you at length. The most that has been discussed is people baffled why you get worked up over almost anything I post on here.
greentime
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 2:15:43 PM
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AdmiralMotti89 wrote:
But it makes no sense to me to recommend the currently good figures who will be replaced to some degree by alternate versions of their older incarnations, when those older incarnations can be bought before the price spike, and many of the current good ones (somewhat replaced in the future) will go down.


It's a priority thing. Doombot is amazing, period. He splashes into every Republic squad you could possibly want to make. Therefore if you are deal-hunting in the following months, you are better off looking for a cheap Doombot than trying to predict which currently bad pieces will be good in the future. It seems very unlikely that the design committee is going to put out anything near that good. The same line of reasoning prevails with Lobot, Yobuck, etc. Pieces that are top-flight will stay relatively high in value because they are top-flight. Might as well get them after the big cancellation hits rather than wait until supply drops and scarcity starts to become a problem.
AdmiralMotti89
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 2:44:18 PM
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Mickey wrote:
@AdmiralMotti89: My determination on the pricing is from watching prices last year religiously. Until we completed our collection I was buying figs from ebay every week. I was watching the max in my queue (200 I think) at all times. I was buying R/VR pieces and using them as trade stock here.


So? You still have no proof. I do. Honestly, it doesn't matter how many anecdotal examples you think you remember. It still doesn't count as evidence, and for all anyone knows you could be severely misremembering (a thanks to W on that word).

Mickey wrote:
When I look at your prices I can tell right off the ones in () are prices on BIN's. BIN's do not reflect the prices that pieces actually sell for on a final bid. So giving that as reference does not really reflect going prices.


Ohhoho so not true. First of all, none of MY buys were BINs. Second, very few of those that I posted were BINs Third, None of the () Sion prices were BIN's; both were auctions. How does BIN not reflect going prices when you are trying to say prices are low? Did the person buy it or not? Now, you might have an argument if you said BIN's are skewing in that if a person posts a lower than necessary BIN price (Boba BH @ $30, for example), and it gets bought, that BIN is not valid for seeing how HIGH a price is going. But when you try to say that BIN's are invalid, that works AGAINST your argument that prices are low, because no one would buy a piece for higher than what they'd be willing to pay, but they would buy it for lower. I don't see how you can say the price was too high when it was bought, especially when the prices for the few BIN's I had were pretty close to the auction prices.

Mickey wrote:
So you bought not one but two Darth Sion's last week for under $20. That was one of my hardest pieces to obtain. Of course if you watch ebay enough you can almost always find one that slips through the cracks for a sweet deal.


Wasn't last week, that was between february 15-18. Which means they were posted feb 8-11. Which was in that wake of good deals right after the panic after the announcement. BTW, two of one of the biggest chase pieces of the set 'slipped through?' Unlikely. I suppose it's possible, but let's be rational. It's because of the big panic, and now all evidence points that prices are increasing from that panic. Now, they probably won't increase past the pre-announcement levels, but the evidence points to them currently increasing in recovery from the panic.

Mickey wrote:
I admit I have only been sporatically watching ebay lately to try to pick up filler army pieces. I have browsed lots for sale and at first glance for me it seems prices have dropped since last year. That's all I can say on it.


Well that's a respectable admission. It's totally ok that you don't have enough (any?) proof to support your opinion. Mere glances are practically worthless. What I think is unfair is those that might listen to that opinion and think that SWM prices are going to "keep" nosediving, when A. All previous evidence suggests they won't. and B. They've already stopped diving! Now, the might go down again, but to say that it's just one big downward spiral isn;t a matter of opinion. It's based on fact that don't exist. The facts, the evidence, show that prices have gone up since the crash. With V-sets, all evidence points to some going up.

Mickey wrote:
But to accuse me of lying or making up information is just not right.

Well I said it was either those two, or the third one, which you left out.
But you did admit to the third one, which incidentally you just did here: leaving out pertinent information (intentionally or not).

Mickey wrote:
You have also not offered any proof yourself all through this argmuent.


What? You claiming my prices (which are actual evidence rather than your recollections of what might have happened, maybe, months ago) are not valid because a bought BIN evidently means someone didn't buy the figure, that the prices I listed were BIN's (which a great deal less than half were, probably less than 10%, I'll look it up again if you really want), and evidently all the deals I got were items that slipped through the cracks. Seriously?
Sithborg
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 2:44:32 PM
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Okay. The topic is the speculation of what the prices will do in the future. NOT individual playgroups or players. Bring it back on topic. NOW.

Case prices will only inch up if the demand stays around. Prices overall are going to drop, sure. But I don't think they have much further to fall than when the game was in production, don't you think. And if you look at the various committess (or at least the 4 I know of), you can see which has had the most success, and I can tell why they had the sucess of keeping their game alive (hint: it is tourny support).
AdmiralMotti89
Posted: Tuesday, March 9, 2010 3:03:31 PM
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greentime wrote:


It's a priority thing. Doombot is amazing, period. He splashes into every Republic squad you could possibly want to make. Therefore if you are deal-hunting in the following months, you are better off looking for a cheap Doombot than trying to predict which currently bad pieces will be good in the future. It seems very unlikely that the design committee is going to put out anything near that good. The same line of reasoning prevails with Lobot, Yobuck, etc. Pieces that are top-flight will stay relatively high in value because they are top-flight. Might as well get them after the big cancellation hits rather than wait until supply drops and scarcity starts to become a problem.


Again, you're basing this on the assumption that those good pieces will stay good and the bad ones will stay bad or be mediocre. Anyways, if someone sees a Luke JK that they want (after they his V set version) go up to $10-15 from the current $5, I won't have any sympathy for them. I guess all I can say is that I've given the warning. Pieces like GGDAC, Boba Merc, Luke CotF, and Kyle JBM will most likely all go down in price (in addition to the possible overall decrease in price (which isn't some unrelenting spiral that began with the announcement, even though some have suggested that)) when the viable replacement virtual options like GGJH, Boba (RS), Luke JK, and UH Kyle hit the scene.

But there are exceptions, especially non-uniques like the mouse, that won't really go down I think, I'll agree with you for those ones. I'm not sure I buy the scarcity business for too many of the Uniques though.

How can the demand for currently good Unique figures go up if the player base decreases? Those figures can't really get any better (although I admit that V-sets might increase the usefulness of currently good ones through new combos), but IMO, the increase in utility of the V-cards will outpace the increase in the utility of already good figures resulting from new combos resulting from V-sets. At least, that's what seemed to happen with SWCCG. LSJK is an example that I can recall. He is still a great card, but his price decreased, while quite a few V-cards (practiaclly all the 2-player game cards and half the Objectives) increased.
chiech22
Posted: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 2:22:31 AM
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As the winner of a Boba BH, for under 40 with shipping a few weeks ago, I was ecstatic. Then after those few weeks, I find out the person who sold me Boba BH, had 'never sold before' and 'didn't know how to ship' while continually he/she continued buying Magic cards. Long story short (too late I know), Boba never shipped, but I did get a refund. I think that over the next month or so they could be a lot of scammers out to list chase VRs and get some money. So, buyer beware.

All the other minis that I have gotten have been slightly less that what I consider market value, which I qualify as less than BIN and the big online sellers, but more than I wanted to pay to 'get a deal'.


Sorry about using '' so much.
PhageLab
Posted: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 2:56:16 AM
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Not jumping into the massive debate at hand here, but I do have a question:

Are you going to wait to see if someone picks up the line before creating a V-set or will work commence immediately after the release of MoTF?

I realize there is a very slim chance that will happen, but I am still hopeful of the possibility.
billiv15
Posted: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 3:55:52 AM
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PhageLab wrote:
Not jumping into the massive debate at hand here, but I do have a question:

Are you going to wait to see if someone picks up the line before creating a V-set or will work commence immediately after the release of MoTF?

I realize there is a very slim chance that will happen, but I am still hopeful of the possibility.


Actually, it's more than a slim chance. I wouldn't put a percentage on it, but it's not nearly as far fetched as some have claimed from my understanding of the situation.

But regardless, the plan is to go about it when MotF is released, regardless of the rumors of a purchase or not. When something is confirmed, we will have that discussion, but will go forward with the assumption that nothing is going to happen for the time being (even if as I said, it seems to be a pretty decent chance at this point).
AdmiralMotti89
Posted: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 4:17:44 AM
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chiech22 wrote:

All the other minis that I have gotten have been slightly less that what I consider market value, which I qualify as less than BIN and the big online sellers, but more than I wanted to pay to 'get a deal'.


However, as Tirade and I discussed over on Wizards, eBay auctions have pretty much always been less than what the retailers sell for (exceptions would be right when sets come out), and more than what the ebay seller could sell to the retailer for. However, now, as we are rising a bit out of the crash, the retailers might be a better place to go if you want to sell. For example, I bought 3 Kyle JBM's for $5 each (accidentally, I just placed a junk bid that went through) and sold them for over $10 each to a retailer.
AdmiralMotti89
Posted: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 4:21:58 AM
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billiv15 wrote:

But regardless, the plan is to go about it when MotF is released, regardless of the rumors of a purchase or not. When something is confirmed, we will have that discussion, but will go forward with the assumption that nothing is going to happen for the time being (even if as I said, it seems to be a pretty decent chance at this point).


Now, I was under the impression that if a company picks up the game with compatible rules, then the Gamers design team would just stop producing and pretty much just say "forget it, it was fun while it lasted, but we have the game being company produced agian now," and the V-cards would no longer be pushed as being official, including already released ones.

In essence, even if a company picks it up, it's not like they (or gamers) have any reason to keep what gamers will have done.

Now, if another company picks it up with a different ruleset, that's where the legal stuff really comes in beyond anything I understand.
dnemiller
Posted: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 7:34:07 AM
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Mickey wrote:
Since there will be no official ruling body over the game (DCI will be dead) those sets are going to be up to the venue to accept. If our location is typical of others we have already seen a drop off in players.


i dont really care or have an opinion on prices in anyway at all but I did want to address this one comment.

There will be an official ruling body basically made up of the current ruling body.

i mean seriously what do think makes up DCI right now and who does what.

If you are talking about the company Wizards and DCI the only thing being done by them right now is they are entering the wins and losses for us. THAT IS IT.

The rest is done by me with support coming from what I hear from the community. so really you will have zero change in the ruling body except by the name. If your venue chooses to ignore the ruling body then it is no different than what you have right now. You will just get together and play casual events if you wish. If you want to have a official structured ranked tourney you will be turning to the sanctioning body.

This is the same sanctioning body that is doing all the legwork and providing all the support for Regionals and Gencon. FYI Wotc is not providing anything nothing at the moment.
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