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Predict the tournament result! Options
TheHutts
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 12:50:53 PM
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I've always wanted to post the squads and initial pairings in a tournament, and get people to predict which squad won. At last night's Hutt100, we had precisely 8 squads, so it's the perfect tournament to do this with.

Go here -http://www.bloomilk.com/Forums/default.aspx?g=posts&m=145262#145262 - and you can guess which squad went through and won Hutt100 2013. I'll come back and confirm later today
thereisnotry
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 4:09:20 PM
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I think it was the "Big Ass Little Ass" squad.

Cin and Quin would pose problems for a lone low-hp shooter, but they wouldn't have an answer for all the Bombs.
Jarael/Marn don't have enough dmg output, IMHO.
Elite Scouts are cool, but there's not enough of them to outlast the Cad/Bomb squad.
The Mando squad is cool, and could take it, if it is played well; however, the two Scouts won't be doing much in a low activation squad.
Furious Bane would cause trouble for the Bombs, but only if the Bomb player didn't hide his pieces well.
The Cad/Assaj squad is really cool, but again, only if the Bomb player doesn't hide his pieces.
Kyle/Marn/Jan is a solid contender, and is probably one of the top 2 or 3.

Those are my initial thoughts. Watch me be entirely wrong...but a ton of bombs in 100pts is just nasty.

FlyingArrow
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 4:22:39 PM
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thereisnotry wrote:
I think it was the "Big Ass Little Ass" squad.

Cin and Quin would pose problems for a lone low-hp shooter, but they wouldn't have an answer for all the Bombs.
Jarael/Marn don't have enough dmg output, IMHO.
Elite Scouts are cool, but there's not enough of them to outlast the Cad/Bomb squad.
The Mando squad is cool, and could take it, if it is played well; however, the two Scouts won't be doing much in a low activation squad.
Furious Bane would cause trouble for the Bombs, but only if the Bomb player didn't hide his pieces well.
The Cad/Assaj squad is really cool, but again, only if the Bomb player doesn't hide his pieces.
Kyle/Marn/Jan is a solid contender, and is probably one of the top 2 or 3.

Those are my initial thoughts. Watch me be entirely wrong...but a ton of bombs in 100pts is just nasty.



I think the Poggle build is the toughest of the Cad builds, but they run into a Disruptive/Distraction wall with Kyle. Not enough firepower in Cad/Rodian Assassin to overcome the CE suppression. I see Cin/Quin facing Kyle in the finals. Kyle wins it in my bracket, but Cin/Quin would have lost to the Poggle bombs if they had made it past Kyle.

(I put my full post in the other thread.)
FlyingArrow
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 4:27:26 PM
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By the way, TheHutts, thanks for posting this. I love these sorts of discussions, and the fact that we'll see actual results makes it even better. Of course none of these are particularly bad builds, so discrepancy in player skill could probably overcome almost any of the match-ups.
SignerJ
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 4:37:54 PM
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I'm thinking it is either "Little Ass and Big Ass" or "Furious Bane." It just depends on how well the squads are played.

I guess I'll go with "Little Ass and Big Ass," since it seems like it has the higher chances of winning.
thereisnotry
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 6:27:21 PM
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SignerJ wrote:
I'm thinking it is either "Little Ass and Big Ass" or "Furious Bane." It just depends on how well the squads are played.

I guess I'll go with "Little Ass and Big Ass," since it seems like it has the higher chances of winning.

Yes, 12 bombs plus an MTB allows you to outactivate anything and then auto-win init, so Cad can take 8 shots in a row against something. And if the enemy has Soresu/Evade, then he's got the Bombs for auto-damage (with MTB as the fuse). It's a very nasty squad.

Kyle/R2/Jan does have the ability to nerf the bombs, which would be a problem. I guess if anyone in this tournament is going to beat this squad reliably, that would be the one.
TheHutts
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 6:35:07 PM
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Cool - I'll give you another hour or two (especially as no one has the correct answer yet!).

thereisnotry wrote:
Yes, 12 bombs plus an MTB allows you to outactivate anything and then auto-win init, so Cad can take 8 shots in a row against something. And if the enemy has Soresu/Evade, then he's got the Bombs for auto-damage (with MTB as the fuse). It's a very nasty squad.


Cad only gets a twin each time, right? So he can only do 40 on each piece each round.
FlyingArrow
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 7:58:34 PM
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Since there's no correct answer yet, I'll review my guess.

GAME A:
I said Quin Drallig in a close one. Switch it. Talon/Marn wins it.

GAME B:
I said Daala easily. Keep it.

GAME A-B:
I had said Quin Drallig over Daala in a close one. If Quin Drallig was already beaten in round 1, Daala should handle Talon easily. So put Daala into the finals.

GAME C:
I had said LittleBigPoggle pretty easily. Stick with that. I don't see Ventress living through a swarm of Poggle bombs, and the rest of the squad is evenly matched.

GAME D:
I had said Kyle over Furious Bane in a close one. Switch that.

GAME C-D:
I had said Kyle over LittleBigPoggle. LittleBigPoggle looks really strong in the absence of CE suppression, and I do think LittleBigPoggle looks stronger than Furious Bane, but since we already know LittleBigPoggle didn't win it, I might as well put Furious Bane through to the finals. Easy to see how Furious Bane could pull it off... just have to sneak through the front lines to Furious Assault a room full of Drones and it's pretty much over. Seems like a tall order, but we'll give it to them.

FINALS:
Daala vs Furious Bane. Bane dies in 2 hits from the Elite Scout Troopers. Aurra in 3. Elite Scouts have 50HP, so Aurra can kill an Elite Scout Trooper with Charging Fire+10, but if she's based she can't even kill the one that based her without taking an AoO. Cad can't kill one in one activation at all, but if the troopers are placed carelessly, he could damage a bunch of them at once. Cad/Aurra will hit more of their shots than the troopers, but not enough to make up for the fact that there are more than twice as many troopers coming at them. Daala wins this one pretty easily.

And if LittleBigPoggle had won, they would have a similar problem. Cad can't kill a Scout in one round, and he can only absorb 2 of their shots before being defeated. Activation control+init control lets Cad go last and then first so he can fly in and kill one and fly out, but if they are hidden well enough, he won't get far enough away to avoid the return Charging Fire from the other troops. With 6 Imperial shooters, There are enough troopers to pick off approaching Drones, so while a few might get through, the Seps won't get that much damage out of them. Daala's Elite Scouts would win this match-up, too.

WINNER: Daala / "Elite Scouts"
TheHutts
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 9:14:54 PM
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OK - Flying Arrow nailed most of it in his second guess, so here are the results:

Round 1
A - Jarael/Marn bt Cin Drallig 101-40 on Rancor Pen
B - Elite Scouts bt Mandos 100-12 on Yavin Ruins (we used the standard list, but most people chose restricted maps)
C - Cad/Assaj bt LittleBigPoggle 114-0 on Jabba's Palace
D - Furious Bane bt Kyle 125-66 on Cantina

Round 2
AB - Elite Scouts bt Jarael/Marn 100-65 on Bothan Spynet (this was close, as Jarael managed to get to Daala. The Elite Scout player didn't see it coming....)
CD - Furious Bane bt Cad/Assaj 101-10 on Jabba's Palace

Round 3
two undefeated - Elite Scouts bt Furious Bane 100-29 on Cantina

We played a final as well, which was Elite Scouts vs Jarael/Marn - the Elite Scout player left his R7 in a little room on Bothan Spynet with Daala this time, so the game wasn't as close, 100-27 to the Scouts.

For people interested, while LittleBigPoggle lost the first round, but did win its other two Swiss matches, plus a casual game during the final, so it did kind of end up 3-1.

In the player skill vs squad debate, the two finalists were the two players in the field who finished highest in the recent national NZ tournament, so there's probably a good argument that skill is a big factor in matchups.
FlyingArrow
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 9:29:40 PM
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How did Cad/Assaj win 114-0? Did the Poggle player send Cad out too early and let him get him by both Cad and Assaj early? If he is lost early, I can see how this might end quickly at 114-0.

Can you post the results for the rest of Swiss?
TheHutts
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2013 9:45:35 PM
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Other Swiss

Round 2:
Little Ass Big Ass bt Kyle 52-40 on Jabba's Palace
Mandos bt Quin Drallig 127-24 on Yavin Ruins

Round 3:
Marn/Jarael bt Cad/Assaj 104-42 on Ruined Base
LittleBigAss bt Mandos 58-25 on Jabba's Palace
Kyle bt Quin Drallig 130-53 on Cantina

It sounds like the LABAPoggle player was a bit hesistant, and let Assaj get to his Cad. Assaj is pretty fast - she can move 18 points and still attack.

As the squad owner, I do think the Elite Scout Troopers have some good matchups - they have 50hp, stealth, and evade, so they are tough for 12 points, and Daala gives them movement and good damage output. Plus Recon is strong in a 100 point tournament, where there aren't many cost effective initiative options. I'd back the Troopers against most of the matchups - Cin/Quinlan would be the tough one, where the Troopers' defensive abilities aren't much use, and the opponents have really good ranged defence, but even there they have a decent chance.
Galactic Funk
Posted: Sunday, September 8, 2013 6:25:26 AM
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Can you go into more detail about how Talon/Jarael/Marn won so convinsingly over Cin and Quintet? Did Quinlan not cloak/
Sthlrd2
Posted: Sunday, September 8, 2013 7:46:36 AM
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Galactic Funk wrote:
Can you go into more detail about how Talon/Jarael/Marn won so convinsingly over Cin and Quintet? Did Quinlan not cloak/


I will take a wild guess and say it had something to do with Talons little pets that shut down force users.
Galactic Funk
Posted: Sunday, September 8, 2013 8:14:28 AM
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Sthlrd2 wrote:
Galactic Funk wrote:
Can you go into more detail about how Talon/Jarael/Marn won so convinsingly over Cin and Quintet? Did Quinlan not cloak/


I will take a wild guess and say it had something to do with Talons little pets that shut down force users.


I also forgot about Talon's disruptive which definitely has an impact.

I should probably go back and read the details in the rules forum but this has a pretty good example of these interactions so I am just going to ask it here.

First, Talon's CE's work only if his squad is all fringe (or has the independent outfit stuff). Assuming his CE's are active as is the case here, Quinlan should be able to Con Artist one of the CE's correct?

Second, if QV can Con Artist one of Talon's CE's does Talons Disruptive stop QV from being able to benefit from it if he is within the disruptive bubble?

FlyingArrow
Posted: Sunday, September 8, 2013 10:16:28 AM
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Galactic Funk wrote:
I also forgot about Talon's disruptive which definitely has an impact.

I should probably go back and read the details in the rules forum but this has a pretty good example of these interactions so I am just going to ask it here.

First, Talon's CE's work only if his squad is all fringe (or has the independent outfit stuff). Assuming his CE's are active as is the case here, Quinlan should be able to Con Artist one of the CE's correct?

Second, if QV can Con Artist one of Talon's CE's does Talons Disruptive stop QV from being able to benefit from it if he is within the disruptive bubble?


I don't think so. Disruptive affects enemy commander effects. Characters (enemies or allies) within the Disruptive bubble cannot be affected by enemy commander effects, and enemy commanders within the bubble have their CE suppressed. With Con Artist, the commander effect is not stolen like the Yammosk. For the Yammosk, the text is effectively written on the Yammosk's card and it becomes a Yuuzhan Vong commander effect. With Con Artist, the CE isn't stolen. It's just that the Con Artist gets its benefits. So Talon doesn't disrupt his own CE since it's not an enemy CE.

However, if Quinlan Vos had an ally with Disruptive, the ally could turn off the CE Quin got from Con Artist.

But you might want to check the rules forum.
---
EDIT: This post is wrong.
Sthlrd2
Posted: Sunday, September 8, 2013 12:58:58 PM
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That is incorrect. This is the way I have always looked at it. Disruptive doesn't do anything to the ce. It disrupts the enemy from granting or receiving any ce. Quinlan would be in disruptive and not get any ce because he is an enemy that is being disrupted.
This might help you see it my way. This is Con Artist Question in the rules forum.

http://www.bloomilk.com/Forums/default.aspx?g=posts&t=13181
FlyingArrow
Posted: Sunday, September 8, 2013 2:31:39 PM
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Thanks. You're right. The thread I found when I searched and the glossary itself indicates the opposite.
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