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bigbro911
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 3:43:28 AM
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Chargers wrote:
There will be a next company.


I'd like to hope so, but I am not so sure.

I will make a leap of logic and guess someone at WotC was not just having a bad day (got up on the wrong side of the bed, found out thier spouse was cheating on them, etc) when they made the decision to discontinue SWM. If you would permit me to make an assumption for the sake of the discussion that the profit after creating and marketing the product, along with the cost of using LFL IP, was not substantial enough to continue the brand. That being the case, how could the profit be more sustaniable to a third party who has to pay for both LFL and WotC IP (if they were even willing) and manage the design, production, marketing, and distribution of new minis? If it was doing that well why wouldn't WotC, an established game company, just have continued the brand?

The diffrence between SWM and HC is improtant to realize. I feel HC was doing ok, but the overhead from Wizkids staff and less successful brands was not making the profits Topps desired. Topps closed the doors and wanted to make some of thier money back (IIRC 20+ million) they spent several years back when they bought WK from Jordan Weisman. The basicly sold all but the MechWarrior and Shadowruns lines (because they were already making money thru licensing to another game company) lock, stock, and barrel. They found a bidder in NECA, who inherited an already designed and possibly produced set, Hammer of Thor. Topps was looking for a buyer and found one to recoup losses. Good for them, and good for us players. But how does that even compare to WotC? We don't have a lot of info at the moment but there are two main questions I have:
1. How can the SWM brand (in it present form) be $$$ sustainable if WotC, a successful game company, did not see it that way.
2. If #1 is even possible, would WotC/LFL be willing to license IP.

Chargers wrote:
The investment part is your chance to be part of that next company. No commitments are required yet. We need to find out how many people are willing and able to be part of it. The more $ we can raise internally before going to the bank for a loan the better.


This is the part that scares me. I have seen similar with clix (even donated myself). Even with the best intentions, it just ain't happening. Heck, these days folks have problems getting a car or house loan.

Love the game. Support the game. Play the game. Support those who like Bill, Dean, and many, many others who love SWM and are trying to move the game forward (tourneys, new stat cards, custom maps, etc), but just be wary of those asking for donations towards producing a game that a major game company dropped.

Not trying to rain on anyones parade, but just trying to keep it real.

Hey, and if you do get it to work put me down for a case or two!! I be the first to buy!
BigGrin
FlyingArrow
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 4:01:52 AM
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Joined: 5/26/2009
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I posted this in another thread but didn't get a reply...

I think the best bet for more SWM figures is a line that is marketed without a game, purely as a collector's item but the same size as SWM. Those types of collectibles could be higher quality, but would cost more. Because they're collectibles marketed to the hardcore SW fans, they could produce even the most obscure Star Wars characters. The virtual sets would provide stats for such minis. By being purely collectibles they wouldn't compete directly against the existing SWM figures but would carve out their own niche, while still appealing to SWM players who want more figures.

Another Star Wars minis game in any form would be a direct competitor to the SWM game we know. That means the new company would somehow have to convince SWM players to buy the new product... either being a new format (different size), or massive power creep to obsolete the old pieces.
Chargers
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 6:13:08 AM
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Understandable concerns. So, let's address them.

bigbro911 wrote:
... If you would permit me to make an assumption for the sake of the discussion that the profit after creating and marketing the product, along with the cost of using LFL IP, was not substantial enough to continue the brand. That being the case, how could the profit be more sustaniable to a third party who has to pay for both LFL and WotC IP (if they were even willing) and manage the design, production, marketing, and distribution of new minis? If it was doing that well why wouldn't WotC, an established game company, just have continued the brand?


Sometimes it isn't that the product doesn't make money but rather it doesn't make enough money. Public companies are under great pressure to have a high profit so they can pay their stockholders -- and those people don't want 5% returns that they can get in safe investments.

Case in point: My full-time job. We periodically have to tell some customers that we will no longer make parts for them. Yes, we're covering costs and overhead, but we're not getting a return on them. We can jack up the price or have the customer find another company who can better serve their required production levels.

If WotC can invest an amount and have net profit of half of that with Magic vs a quarter of that with SWM, which is in their better interest to do?

There is something about economies of scale that large companies can provide. But there is also something about the low cost structure and nimbleness of small businesses.


bigbro911 wrote:
The diffrence between SWM and HC is improtant to realize. ... [Topps] found a bidder in NECA, who inherited an already designed and possibly produced set, Hammer of Thor. Topps was looking for a buyer and found one to recoup losses. Good for them, and good for us players. But how does that even compare to WotC?


You are correct. Although somewhat similar, there are some big differences. This won't be an easy or overnight process. But it can be done.


bigbro911 wrote:
Chargers wrote:
The investment part is your chance to be part of that next company. No commitments are required yet. We need to find out how many people are willing and able to be part of it. The more $ we can raise internally before going to the bank for a loan the better.


This is the part that scares me. I have seen similar with clix (even donated myself). Even with the best intentions, it just ain't happening. Heck, these days folks have problems getting a car or house loan.


Very understandable, especially for someone who donated to the SHC cause. But we're not looking for donations. We're looking for investors and talent contributors.

Repeated for emphasis: No commitments are required yet. We need to find out how many people are willing and able to be part of it.

No cash has been asked for. We will not ask people to hand over gas money. We want them to invest with us instead of Wall Street or their local bank savings account with a .1% return AND keep alive the game we all love.

Yes, we're putting together a business plan. Yes, it will take some investment. Yes, we want it to be a profitable venture. For everyone involved; whether that's 5 or 5000 people. No, we don't expect them to hand over cash without seeing that plan.
Eroschilles
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 6:20:28 AM
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billiv15 wrote:
And I should add this. A couple of million sounds like a lot of money, but it's really not nearly as much as you think. This would be by all stretches a "small business" and you don't need millions to start it. You need a couple hundred thousand generally upfront to get something like this going. Chargers is actually someone who knows a good deal about how these things work, I would take him seriously guys. There are others in the community who also have the kind of business experience, know how, and connections to do something like this, so it's not nearly the stretch it might seem to be.


I'm sure this would start out as a small business, but small business aren't classified by how much they cost to start-up or how much revenue they bring in, but by the employee size. Small businesses can range from only a few thousand dollars to start out of someone's house, to a few millions to get going.

The problem with minis is that they need to be produced in a factory most likely. One could attempt to set up a mini factroy in one's basement for much less than outsourcing to China. But if one were to outsource to China for short run business plan cycles, then one needs to be willing to produce enough to get the factory owner's attention to make a deal.

So, I'm always up for potentially profitable business ventures, but I always find it's good to know alot about the venture beforehand.

First thing to ask I would think would be how many minis are you looking to produce? How big is the target market you are looking to sell to? How many units did WOTC manage to sell last year?
NickName
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 6:43:27 AM
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Chargers wrote:

Sometimes it isn't that the product doesn't make money but rather it doesn't make enough money. Public companies are under great pressure to have a high profit so they can pay their stockholders -- and those people don't want 5% returns that they can get in safe investments.


On what information would you base the assessment that this is a case of the "sometimes" rather than the more typical case of "most of the time"?

Assuming it is the "sometimes" case, what makes you think a license from WotC for the mechanics is available, and available at a price that wouldn't push that "sometimes" into the more typical case.

We have very little public information, but we do have one general number in a similar case and if I recall that was that DreamBlade was a $4 million investment. We can make all sorts of assumptions of stuff that might not apply to getting SWM off the ground, and also know certain things will cost more in the case of SWM. But let's assume WotC was off by a factor of 4 (which seems like a pipe dream to me that they could be so innefficient given all their experience but whatever) you're still talking about a million bucks. What investor is going to buy into a "maybe it was about as profitable as a much safer investment opportunity" sales pitch?

As someone noted above, HeroClix being picked up by NECA was a line that was clearly profitable and they were getting the talent and experience in producing it for basically free along with the product itself due to WizKids corporate demise. SWM has no such opportunity. As a group, we know, for the most part, jack-all about hiring artists, producing scuplts, painting plastics, worldwide importing and exporting, distribution, and marketing of game products. All that knowledge remains at WotC.

We have enthusiasm, and some general business sense. That's it. That doesn't tend to be enough.

Eroschilles
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 7:01:00 AM
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NickName wrote:


As someone noted above, HeroClix being picked up by NECA was a line that was clearly profitable and they were getting the talent and experience in producing it for basically free along with the product itself due to WizKids corporate demise. SWM has no such opportunity. As a group, we know, for the most part, jack-all about hiring artists, producing scuplts, painting plastics, worldwide importing and exporting, distribution, and marketing of game products. All that knowledge remains at WotC.

We have enthusiasm, and some general business sense. That's it. That doesn't tend to be enough.



I agree that it is unlikely that this venture would be able to succeed, but I think there is more going for it than you give credit.

I'm sure the community has people who are good artists for desging cards and sculpts, and then painting plastics. That's what custom mini makers do. Creating the metal molds for the sculpts is tough, then the actual producing of minis through the use of purchased plastic and heating it up in the molds is tough knowledge and experience to come by as well.

The marketing and establishing of distribution is tedious more than anything and requires alot of phone calls. Advertising would be done entirly via the internet and word of mouth I'm assuming as running ad campaigns gets quite expensive.

Licensing is going to be even tougher and quite expensive.

I don't see how this venture can even break even in the first two years, but if it's successful enough and the people managing the business experienced and lucky enough, it may be able to churn profit in a few years.
NickName
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 7:19:17 AM
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To be clear, I was not talking about what customizers do in regards to scuplt and paint. I was talking about mass production. There are few similarities.
bigbro911
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 7:37:02 AM
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NickName wrote:
As someone noted above, HeroClix being picked up by NECA was a line that was clearly profitable and they were getting the talent and experience in producing it for basically free along with the product itself due to WizKids corporate demise. SWM has no such opportunity. As a group, we know, for the most part, jack-all about hiring artists, producing scuplts, painting plastics, worldwide importing and exporting, distribution, and marketing of game products. All that knowledge remains at WotC.

We have enthusiasm, and some general business sense. That's it. That doesn't tend to be enough.

NickName thinks I am someone!!!

Who'da thunk it!!
LOL

But seriously, the enthusiasm is the great part about us gamers. We love to play...and we will continue to do so.

I for one am excited about what all the talent in our community can come up with to enhance SWM. I just am doutbful that that includes new "official" product in the near future. Unlike cardboard crack, plastic crack has by it's very nature a slim profit margin by comparison. But new character cards print close to free on my printer!
NickName
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 7:42:18 AM
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Agreed. You could even do a real print run of fan-made cards at a pretty affordable price on nice stock if you can generate an interest level about what JC and Mapmaker have been able to generate for their map projects.

The stickler is pre-painted plastic which is a huge obstacle (and of course, the licensing required to turn this into an actual business rather than a fan project.)

bigbro911 wrote:
NickName thinks I am someone!!!


That and four bucks will get you a coffee at Starbucks! Tell'em I sent you! BigGrin
homestar45
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 9:17:38 AM
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I'm just throwing this out there and then I'm going to shut up (hopefully). I've wondered for a while here as to how Wizards could make any money off of SWM for one simple fact:

They don't advertise worth jack.

Let's be honest. Anyone who knows anything about business knows that you should put around 10% of what you make into advertising. And with a name like star wars attached to a product it should be easy to advertise. Kids, adults, and people who can't read will buy this product if they see it for the simple fact of what it's associated with.

I love star wars and am in the know about certain things but I only found out about this product because I went out of my way to see if there was something like it. I'm just saying, Wizards should have made money off of this. It baffles me that they didn't do more.
bigbro911
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 9:38:18 AM
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Another way to look at it is what is WotC core business? Magic and D&D. Moving off D&D minis (that was not selling great as a skirmish game) and now SWM and the SW Rpg could be a smart thing for them (don't kill me yet)

One of the things that I think iced WK was all the diffrent games they tried to do. While HC was by all appearences making $, all the other games they tried to get into (raceday, high stakes drifter, toon clix to name a few) were losing them money. In the end, maybe those risks that didn't pay off were nails in their coffin (although you need some risk in any good business).

Dreamblade seemed to be a fail as an example from wotc. Maybe by cutting off the less profitable brands and expensive licenced ventures, WotC will ensure it's survival in these lean times.

And survival is a smart thing these days!
billiv15
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 9:55:08 AM
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Bigbro - You've almost hit on what I believe has happened. It isn't that SWMs wasn't profitable, or probably the margin was too low. In fact, I think the opposite is likely true, that Magic and D&D were suffering. As odd as it sounds to many of us with little business acumen, these decisions are rarely based on profit margins.

WotC is known for Magic the Gathering. That is THE Brand. In fact, WotC might as well be called, Magic. If Magic fails, then WotC fails, regardless of other games and any profit they bring, simply because that is what gives WotC their identity and respect in the industry. And those are not just meaninless things. The Magic resurgency of the last couple of years cost WotC a lot of resources. In fact, I would argue, that the ending of SWMs and DDM was not due to anything in and of those products themselves, but the investment WotC chose to make to maintain Magic and D&D. Our games were the cost of a successful Magic as it were.

Doesn't make sense? Well, get used to it, but it is what it is. WotC (made up almost exclusively by former Magic World Champion players and D&D vets) cannot let their core brands go. So everything peripheral goes instead. Remember Peter Lee as the final designer, where did he come from? He was a retention from the DDM staff kept on to oversee the end of SWMs. All SWs people, both of them, were let go or left last year. That's right, WotC had a massive staff of 2 people doing SWMs, and a few contracted people, and a couple of others who had SWMs as a minor duty among their many other roles. That's it.

As to support and advertising, well those were costing WotC almost nothing, as the little they were doing was tied into other things and costs. So their support for years has been close to 0 in terms of marketing, dci and so on.

WotC is not interested in renewing the license either, and it had nothing to do with it's cost. Hasbro offered WotC the option to come in under theirs last year. We assumed WotC agreed, obviously they did not. This too would have cost them next to nothing.

These types of decisions are made all the time in the business world, and they seldom have anything to do with actual cost or profit. WotC is worried about surviving at all, and not being folded by Hasbro completely. That is concern number 1. Worrying about a minor side project will not determine their future. Worrying solely about Magic and D&D will. And that's where this comes from.

Which also tells me that the future of another company picking up the game is quite possible. A smaller company can definately make a profit at SWMs, with a relatively small investment. And I believe, that is what the annoucement from LFL right after WotC's was in fact all about. Hasbro and LFL essencially do not believe in WotC's statement, and want their customers to know that they believe minis can work. Now, a lot of different outcomes are possible, so don't take my statements to mean I completely think SWMs will come back with set 15 in a little over a year. But I also don't believe cost has anything to do with it. What little I've garnered from insiders and so on over the years, tells me it wasn't.
bigbro911
Posted: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 10:01:59 AM
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Well stated, Bill.

I hope you are right though about another company comming in, and I support keeping the game going by any means.

I just worry about folks getting all over the map too soon. I trust you and the other folks more involved than me to take a level headed approach like I know you will. Thanks!
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