Above are the top 8 squads from GenCon:

1. Tim Ballard - Lancer and Poggle bombs ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/124670/npe-extreme--- )
2. Bryan Hole - Old Republic Master Thon ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/128393/the-thon-song )
3. Ricky Heck - NR: Luke/Jarael/Marn ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/126639/professor-lukes-art-class )
4. Gerry Russell - Republic Naboo ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/122651/r-n-a-f- )
5. Deri Morgan - Rebel Ackbar ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/131935/just-the-spot--of-ackbar- )
6. Daniel Stephens - NR Kyle/Jan Ors ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/126362/lukes-heroes )
7. Jim McNaney - Imperial Desann ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/129241/barney-and-friends )
8. Ben Guins - Sith Revan/Krayt

The 'other' category covers a few other options that were popular/successful in Regionals. I've posted links to some representative squads, but each of these has variants:
9. Cad Bane & Thrawn ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/126993/strike-the-right-corde )
10. Mandalorian (Vindicated + Kelborn)
11. Malgus/Caedus ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/126457/come--as-you-are )
12. Caedus/Zannah ( http://www.bloomilk.com/Squad/131822/zz-caedus )
13. OTHER: Really other... anything else you think is actually the best for whatever reason


Question: What's the best?

Definition of "best" for this poll: The 12 squads above (13 if voting for something not listed above) all face off in a round-robin tournament so each squad plays each other squad once. The best squad is the one that wins the most games, where each squad is played optimally by an expert. (So remove player skill from the equation... each squad gets the advantage of expert play.)

Please defend your choice by arguing which match-ups your choice should win, which ones it should lose, and which ones would be a toss-up.

Ok, since I ran Kyle/Jan, I'll give you my opinions on how the matchups would go. I'm obviously biased, of course, so take this all with a grain of salt.

1. Lancer/Poggle Bombs: Eh, not great, but not unwinnable. I played against greentime with a Lancer/Poggle variant in round 1 and lost, but it was very close. Assuming equal skill of the players and average luck, it's a Lancer win probably 65% of the time, so call it 0-1 for Luke's Heroes.

2. Thon Song: I lost to Bryan in the last round of swiss, but part of that was definitely him playing something different than most people. I also lost all the important initiatives. Assuming equal skill and therefore correcting for the Thon squad being unexpected, I'd give Luke's Heroes the 65/35 split, so call it 1-1. This could be a lot closer to 50-50 though, but I'd need more experience playing with and/or against the Thon squad.

3. Professor Luke's Art Class: I lost to Ricky in the quarterfinals, but it was a REALLY close game (111-104 was the final score). This one totally goes either way, so I wouldn't confidently give the win to either one.

4. RNAF: With 2 Distraction pieces, a Disruptive piece, and lots of Stealth, I think this matchup definitely goes to Luke's Heroes. I've played different variants of the Naboo squads myself a lot, and it's tough for them. I'd say it's a 75-25 split in NR's favor, because the Republic DOES have a lot of power, NR just has a lot of answers to it. Call it 2-1 now.

5. Rebel Cannon with Ackbar: Weird, weird matchup. With the NR, I have to keep him from getting big shots on me, but he has to prevent me from getting ANY shots on him, because I can fairly easily kill most of his squad. I'd bring in 6 activations to get to 17, so the activation count would be close. I'd probably spend the first few rounds with Kyle using GMA to pop in and out of LoS killing stuff, but obviously he'll be trying to prevent that. I really don't know how this matchup would go, so I don't feel confident assigning a win on either side. Deri would probably have better insight into this matchup then me.

Skipping the #6 mirror match...

7. Barney and Friends: I bring in 6 activations so we're tied on acts and I have lots of mice to get in the way. I also have a lot of power so I can fairly easily kill any of his 3 hitters. A good player (which Jim is, obviously) could probably find some opportunities, but in general I'd give NR the win. 3-1 now.

8. Revan/Krayt: Another weird matchup, but I don't see how Sith have a chance to win here. Luke will easily get his Ataru Mastery off, and I'll outactivate by a landslide so I get my opportunist shots. Mice and uggies and such get in the way. I didn't get a chance to really watch Ben play, so maybe he has a good strategy to get this one, but I just don't see it. 4-1.

Other stuff:

Stealth & Blue: I lost to it in Atlanta for over-extending Kyle. If I played it again, I think I could do a lot better. It's probably close to 50-50.

Mandalorians: I beat it in round 3 at GenCon, and I think with very careful play it's a good matchup for the NR. It really takes an expert NR player to beat the expert Mando player. This is probably close to 50-50 in reality.

Malgus/Caedus: I beat Lou by a mile at GenCon in this matchup. I DID have a lot of dice luck, although I did also lose map roll which made things more difficult. My map, Peaceful City, makes it a much easier matchup for me, so less luck is required. In general, this is very winnable for NR, and if both players are experts and average luck is assumed, I think it goes to NR. 5-1 now.

Caedus/Zannah: Easier than Caedus/Malgus, but otherwise similar. 6-1.


So Luke's Heroes is 6-1, with 4 matchups that either I'm not confident on or I think are 50-50, and one (Thon Song) that I think is winnable for NR but I'm not sure confident about either. Overall, pretty good, but not a lot of super easy wins; lots of 60-40 to 70-30 splits. But that's the kind of squad I like anyway.

Realistically, I think that Professor Luke's Art Class is the winner here. It does so well because it's so versatile and efficient, which is what wins these kinds of round-robin contests. Things like RNAF and Lancer/Poggle and Caedus/Malgus are high variance squads, Luke's Art Class is a consistent squad. So, after thinking about it and now making 3 posts about it, I think it wins if we assume equally skilled expert players and average luck.

Echo,

Thanks for the detailed analysis. What are Cad/Thrawn's weaknesses?

didn't this squad fail to make top 4 in Atlanta? I am not sure, but that is what I heard...

yeah just looked it up, it failed to make top 4 in Atlanta.

I voted for Thon Song.

Most of the squads here don't have any really bad match-ups. (Bad match-ups, maybe, but not REALLY bad.) The only really bad match-ups I see are the CE-dependent squads (Lancer/Poggle and Naboo) versus strong Disruptive or ABM. With most other match-ups looking pretty close, Thon Song's strong advantage in those 2 match-ups makes it look to me like the one most likely to end up with the most wins (assuming equal player ability and average luck). I think its toughest match-ups would be Stealth & Blue and the Caedus squads.

I nearly voted for Mandalore Vindicated, because I think it has the advantage over the greatest number of other squads (7 advantages & 2 toss-ups). It's just that in most cases it's only a slight advantage. The same could be said for Luke/Kyle (5 advantages & 4 toss-ups). Or the Naboo, who also has (by my count) an advantage over a bunch of the other squads (6 advantages & 2 toss-ups). But for the Naboo their bad match-ups in this group are quite bad.

TINT,

I had the Mando squad down as an advantage over 6 of the top 8, but in every case except Naboo just a slight advantage. Also a slight advantage over Stealth & Blue. They can't see you.


Two toss-ups in my book...

I put Mandos vs Luke/Kyle down as a toss-up. Luke's LS3 ignores cover, and there's a lot of CE suppression, which will hurt the Mandos.

I also had Mandos down as a toss-up versus Caedus/Zannah. Kind of depends on what the rest of the Caedus/Zannah squad is, I guess, but we split our two in the Delaware regional.


Only two that look to me like they would have an edge over the Mandos (and even then just a slight advantage to the other squad)...

Thon Song. ABM takes out Twin, which is huge. Thon should be able to charge in, do 70 damage (possibly killing a Scout), and then survive a partial-round assault to either Repulse 4 or do another 70 the next round before dying. Mandos have to choose to either bunch up and be vulnerable to the Repulse, or spread out and let Thon get a 2nd shot with the Senator. With Surprise Move, Carth can move 12 to base a Cloaked piece. Without Twin, none of the Mandos can kill him in one activation except a stationary Vindicated, so even if init is lost, Carth can take out a Mando attacker. Mandos of course don't make it easy with Cloaked, but I give a slight nod to Thon on this matchup.

I'd think another bad matchup would be Caedus/Malgus, since Malgus doesn't need line of sight to use FYD. It would take some careful planning, though, to make sure FYD doesn't get wasted by either Resolnare or Vindicated sending the target away so they can't base an enemy anyway. This would be an interesting one to see. I'm also not sure what else typically goes into a Caedus/Malgus squad.

What were your insights? I came away thinking I was outplayed, but not thinking that either squad had an advantage over the other.

That's interesting, because I was thinking that I made a mistake in attacking MtV first. He's the biggest single-hitter, but it might have been better to remove smaller threats first to more quickly reduce the damage output of the squad.

I'd like to see you play against an expert with the ZZ Caedus squad instead of playing me. That would be interesting.

This is my point. There is absolutely no meta in this game. A person can show up at any given tournament and win with any squad type. I for one don't really care because I never get to go to the majority of tournaments anyways, but I have heard many comments since gencon about how sad it is that thon made top 8 and how lame it is that there is no meta.