|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 4/4/2008
Posts: 1,441
|
FlyingArrow wrote:Oh - there's one other situation to consider, which is the 30HP Lancer. Suppose for example another Djem So piece already hit him once. If he has 30HP, Shaak Ti has 64% of killing him (much higher if she gets Cunning) and Saesee Tiin has 82.45% chance of killing him. wrong numbers.
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 4/4/2008
Posts: 1,441
|
FA - I think you gave him the ability to use force twice in a round, which he cannot do. I think that's the error.
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 4/9/2010
Posts: 658
Location: West Bend, Wisconsin
|
Overall: Shaak Ti
Melee counter: Seasee Tiin
Lancer: Shaak Ti
Against each other: Shaak Ti
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 10/20/2009
Posts: 175
|
well ill give it that overall shak ti is good, but stealth doesnt help her that much in a gungan build since she will stay out of sight until she is needed and because most of the people i play against really abuse han cannon squads and lancer squads
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 12/8/2008
Posts: 219
|
Shaak Ti all the way. I was talking about how she was so much better than Tin back when MotF came out, but everyone was caught up with Tin and how "awesome" he was. Not to say Tin is a bad piece I just think Shaak Ti is better than him in almost every way. More damage, Force Renewal, Stealth, Duelist, not to mention she beat Tin by 8 sets  .
|
|
Rank: Moderator
Groups: Member
, Moderator
Joined: 9/23/2008
Posts: 1,487
Location: Lower the Hutt, New Zealand
|
For me its an easy call: Shaak Ti. I don't care how good Saesee Tiin is, I don't own him. Therefore, I'd never choose him.
Chances of me owning Saesee: 9.8%
Chances of me playing Shaak Ti in place of Saesee: 98% (allow 2% margin of error)
Shaak Ti's Assist/Turnover Ratio: 3.2
|
|
Rank: Moderator
Groups: Member
, Moderator
Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 8,428
|
billiv15 wrote:FA - I think you gave him the ability to use force twice in a round, which he cannot do. I think that's the error. I only had him use one force point per round. But you're right about Crowd Fighting - I was using +1 per character instead of +2. Here's the 39% chance of Saesee killing the Lancer. (The x's in the cryptic strings represent FPRR's that are not needed or not taken since another reroll was taken earlier.) FPPxPxPx Fails the first Djem So (50%). Force Point Reroll is successful (70%). Hits first attack (70%). Makes second Djem So (50%). Hits second attack (70%). Total: 8.575% for this scenario. PxFPPxPx Passes first Djem So (50%). Fails first attack (30%). Force Point Reroll is successful (90%). Makes second Djem So (50%). Hits second attack (70%). Total: 4.725% for this scenario. PxPxFPPx Make Djem So save (50%). Hit first attack (70%). Fail 2nd Djem So Save (50%). FPRR successful (70%). Hit second attack (70%). Total: 8.575% for this scenario. PxPxPxFP Make Djem So save (50%). Hit first attack (70%). Make 2nd Djem So Save (50%). Fail 2nd attack (30%). FPRR successful (90%). Total: 4.725% for this scenario. PxPxPxPx Make all of the saves/attacks without needing a FPRR. 50% * 70% * 50% * 70%. Total: 12.25% for this scenario. SUM: 38.85% This kills the Lancer because Saesee has Djem So Style Mastery so each hit is worth 30 damage.
|
|
Rank: Moderator
Groups: Member
, Moderator
Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 8,428
|
billiv15 wrote:FlyingArrow wrote:Oh - there's one other situation to consider, which is the 30HP Lancer. Suppose for example another Djem So piece already hit him once. If he has 30HP, Shaak Ti has 64% of killing him (much higher if she gets Cunning) and Saesee Tiin has 82.45% chance of killing him. wrong numbers. You are correct. Shaak Ti's chances are 90.25%.
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 7/23/2009
Posts: 1,195
|
anything that requires that much math cant be good (sarcastic comment)
|
|
Rank: Moderator
Groups: Member
, Moderator
Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 8,428
|
billiv15 wrote:I assumed GGDAC in play, so that the lancer has a 21 defense.
I did as well. 21 def and Twin Attack. Quote:I did, and I assumed he used it to reroll the Djem so that fails, but obviously he could use it to reroll a miss. Rerolling the djem so had a significant effect on the average damage, rerolling a miss was almost nothing (difference of like 1 point of damage).
I assumed he rerolled the first failure of any sort. Quote:
The problem is, neither Shaak nor Saesee does 10 or 30 dmg hits without cunning on Shaak. So you have to use 20, 40, 60 as the values to get an accurate average.
DSSM lets Saesee Tiin, JM do attacks worth 30 damage. Quote:FlyingArrow wrote:4. Assume no Cunning for Shaak Ti. Opponent would be crazy to pawn a Lancer over top of Shaak Ti - pretty much automatic death. So she's great as a deterrent that way but less likely to kill it. This needs to be emphasized. This is an absolutely huge deterrent. In fact, this alone is more than enough strategically to show that Shaak is the better option. You've eliminated a ton of your opponent's options, but you would probably have to have played the lancer, 2 lancers, or against them multiple times in high level play to really see how important this piece is. If you play this right with Shaak, you can effectively cut the lancer's options by more than half. We should not also forget that Shaak can't be hit by the IG either until it gets within 6, and not by GGDAC either, which make her even more of a better choice against a "LANCER SQUAD" as opposed to just a one on one oversimplification. Fair enough. I'm just doing math here. Clearly if there's an option to Pawn the Lancer Shaak Ti is the better choice. If it's just GGDAC and the Lancer with no pawning, there could be a debate. I think Shaak Ti is still the better choice, though, if only for the Stealth. Quote:FlyingArrow wrote:Let's assume 3 adjacent characters for Shaak Ti, which means she needs a 5 to hit. +13+2+2+2 = 19. Lancer's defense is a 21 with GGDAC. Your numbers are off. You are correct, as noted above. Quote:
But logic should have told you this was wrong before you reported it. Think about it. You need to make 2 50% saves, then 2 70% hits. Even when you can reroll one of those 4 rolls, there is no way the success rate of all of it becomes 38% :)
That's the neat thing about probability - sometimes intuition leads us astray. (See the Birthday Surprise or the Monty Hall Problem.) In this case, you get to selectively apply the reroll to a failure, so the outcomes of the other 3 rolls are not independent of which one you use the reroll on. When the assumption of independence fails, you can get some counter-intuitive results. I've listed all 21 possible outcomes in the table above.
|
|
Rank: Moderator
Groups: Member
, Moderator
Joined: 9/23/2008
Posts: 1,487
Location: Lower the Hutt, New Zealand
|
65% of all statistics are made up on the spot. Is that right? I only get that right about 20% of the time.
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 10/20/2009
Posts: 175
|
well i give it to shak ti in most builds, but not in gungan builds, i would know at tournaments i play nothing but gungans, and against the vong, i will always choose saesee and not shak ti. if shak ti tries to fight any vong peices shes worm food
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 4/4/2008
Posts: 1,441
|
Ah silly me - in my head I was forgetting mettle in my later posts... Lol. The only minor thing missing would be the lancer missing an attack. However, if you simply assume the lancer hits both, and that Saesee has a FP to begin with, then it works at 38%. Nicely done FA.
@Nerf - No one is saying Shaak is the better choice (at least I'm not). You just made the claim that he was way better against the lancer, but I don't see that as true at all. Now against the Vong on the other hand, you are totally correct. There are other situations where Saesee is the better choice as well, it all depends on the build and so forth. Surprise move is highly underrated, and even though you won't be using mettle much in your build, if it comes to a key roll, it can be huge.
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 4/4/2008
Posts: 1,441
|
kezzamachine wrote:65% of all statistics are made up on the spot. Is that right? I only get that right about 20% of the time. Well you made yours up, so that's like 1/3 people making up their statistics in this thread alone :) But that's only 33% of the time. If you add up that FA and I did multiple calculations, then you position ends up more like 1/10 or less :) So no, I don't think it's anywhere near 65%. Math is math, when you do statistics correctly, they are accurate. The problem is a lot of people don't understand this, that and well, we have politicians :)
|
|
Rank: Moderator
Groups: Member
, Moderator
Joined: 9/23/2008
Posts: 1,487
Location: Lower the Hutt, New Zealand
|
Well, of course I knew that it wasn't actually 65%. I quote that number 33% of the time to see what percentage of the people reading it might pick it up. I usually find that only 18% of the people reading things like this see it... and even then that's only 42% of the time.
And I have to pull up on a severe inaccuracy. You said that 'Math is math' when in fact 'Math is Math', where 'Math is math' is only mostly correct. Oh, by the way, who wants to vote for me in the next election?!
*chortle*
|
|
Rank: Moderator
Groups: Member
, Moderator
Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 8,428
|
kezzamachine wrote:
And I have to pull up on a severe inaccuracy. You said that 'Math is math' when in fact 'Math is Math', where 'Math is math' is only mostly correct.
I'm afraid that depends on the definitions of Math and math.
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 1/5/2009
Posts: 2,240
Location: Akron Ohio, just south of dantooine.
|
Quite plainly 25% of Math is capitalized whereas 100% math is not.
kezzamachine could probably get 42% of voters reading his Math (or is it math?) which is 1% of all voters in the Bloo group.
PS
I went with Saesee for the same reason kezz went with Shaak. (margin of error of only 1%)
|
|
Rank: Advanced Bloo Milk Member
Groups: Member
Joined: 4/4/2008
Posts: 1,441
|
Lol, we have derailed, but only 38% of the thread.
|
|
Rank: Moderator
Groups: Member
, Moderator
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 6,457
Location: Southern Illinois
|
billiv15 wrote:Lol, we have derailed, but only 38% of the thread. My off-topic limit is 49%. But I'll let you guys keep track.  Oops. OK...back on topic. I vote Shaak Ti. She's clearly the more well-rounded mini. ;)
|
|
Rank: Young Krayt Dragon
Groups: Member
Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 50
|
can a mini with a square base be well rounded?
|
|
|
Guest |