The 4% number is right for getting 2 crits right off the bat, and getting 3 crits in a row is very unlikely even for Mace (less than 1%), but counting flurries, the chances of getting 3 crits is higher. Better than 5% without re-rolls. If you add in 2 FP re-rolls and any flurries that might come along, the chances of 3 crits is over 10%. Still luck-based, and it's easy to get 0 crits too (even for an entire game), but the chances of Mace going off for huge damage is more than double the chances of Boba's big-D. But then consider that Boba gets 2 shots per activation, and the numbers are actually pretty even.

Even taking into consideration blocks/parries, 3 crits means the enemy is pretty much dead. That's potentially 240 damage, if the other 3 (non-critical) attacks are hits. One LS Block means almost nothing. Parrying half of that (on average) means it's still 120 damage. However, Jaina plus Leia means 3/4 of the attacks are blocked, and Mace is crying that his 240 damage is reduced to 60.

Heh, I remember those debates. So many people claiming that Boba was broken because he defeated their Vader, JH in one hit in a game. And then there was the resurgence of the topic when people were calling for Boba to be banned as well when GOWK got banned.

But then the Blocks/Defenses will go through. Not that absorbing those abilities were a good idea to begin with. And really, no one is going to use their Blocks until either a crit happens or the last attack. And if you use your FPs for rerolls, then you will lose all your ranged defense.

Which brings up another fun counter: Force Alter. Too bad there isn't too many figs with it that would be good. Still, spam Mace with a few OR Jedi Hunters, Consulars, or even the Human Force Adept...

Force alter is a great one, but like you said not to many good characters have it, possibly in the future it will be.
Luke hero of yavin also has 60 hit points and 16 defense, going to go down like a load of crap. Mace has 150 and 22, much much harder to take down.
Mace windu also has some support pieces that I have not seen mentioned yet that can make him much harder for ranged people to kill namely the gungan shieldbearer... I know it is a save of 11 but it will definitely make people think about even shooting at him.

I guess it's just how some play. Rerolling to crit, even if you have a 20% chance of it, is insane to me. You hit, why risk a 1 on reroll? Unless it is a game ending situation, I just can't see myself ever doing it. Reflect and Riposte, even Absorb are all the more useful than hoping for the crit. Renewel 2 helps, but when most of your Force Powers cost 2, it's not that great. Loda needed Renewal 3 to be considered to have a massive anti-range ability with his Reflect.

????? Clearly you haven't even been to the thread where we asked you to go and post your awesome Mace squads....

But to answer you question, Gungan SB was thought of a long long time ago. I even posted a couple of squads around the idea. Here's the deal, they aren't that great. The JarJar, GSB, Yoda one is my favorite, but it has some really bad matchups as well.

As for Luke, he's not a great piece, but you can make him a beast. Use a piece to give him renewal and Yoda of Dag for FPs and Force Spirit. Add in Chewy RH and Ferus for BGs, and a Chagrin MC, and finally Garm for sudo-GMA and you have a very nasty figure. In a game a while back, I used this combo to one shot a Exar Kun with full health.

Also, I don't know why this has been ignored, but flurry is not a very powerful ability on Mace. Heck, it's only marginally decent on non-melee. You have to have another legal target to use it, and there's an interesting interaction that people haven't really figured out yet and Rolling cleave that limits the combo a bit. Flurry happens before damage is dealt to a mini, and therefore before it's removed from the board. Which means, you can't save a flurry for another target after using rolling cleave. Unless Mace manages to base multiple targets (which means your opponent screwed up), more times than not flurry will do nothing. There are a very few situations where it means anything at all. I did have to laugh at the suggestion that removing flurry was the way to "fix" him. It's just not a powerful addition to him. Most of teh time, 120dmg is enough for a kill if you've targeted the right figure with Mace (usually it's going to be even less because depending on a 35% chance to kill a piece (remember, to do so you need at least one crit and 3 other hits, so the real odds of 120 are lower than people keep posting, it's not 40% with 2 FPRRs, its closer to 35% depending on the targets defense). So you normally will be attacking 60hp pieces or less. Only 1-2 times per game will Mace be attacking something with more, so unless you crit specifically only on those rolls will it ever make a difference. And the odds of flurry mattering, assumes that you are attacking a virtually unhit 120hp or more figure. Attacking a 120hp figure early in the game before support is dead against any good squad will result in Mace's death over 90% of the time.

Thats just plain silly. Did it occur to you that some of those re-rolls could be for misses. He can miss (othrwise he would be broken). To kill a key piece in a game, yeah, I migth re-roll a hit. It is just a game, not a life or death struggle for dominance. Nobody said anything about using every power every turn willy-nilly. All that was done was calculate the probability of crits using two different scenarios, one of which was admitted to be ideal.

Yes, yes I did. One cannot hear tone in the writen word. And quoting Sithborg's reponse to my number crunching does not imply the thread as a whole, but the number chrunching itself. One could use those numbers to bolster the not-broken argument, as clearly they show how luck based he is. The more I see him played the more my first reaction is changing.

The chances of Mace doing at least 120 dmg to a 23 defense figure are better than 50%, assuming no blocks/parries/damage reduction. That's based on 5000 replications of a simulation of Mace attacking 3 times, gaining flurry and triple damage on a crit, and using up to 2 FPRRs if he misses.

(Same simulation as earlier: http://www.bloomilk.com/Forums/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=8530&p=21 )

That is no claim it is the truth, he has won every single one of those except the one loss to a stealth in blue squad, which he turned around and beat in a rematch. like I have been saying do i honestly think Mace Windu will win every single game he is played in? no, of course not because there are going to be games where you roll nothing over a 7 or so, and lose every initiative, and so on, but chances are with rolls like that it does not matter what you do, you are going to lose.
Now, the major problem I have is that if Mace rolls good, guess what he destroys everything he touches, everything. Other people have given great examples of what he has destroyed in one activation, so let's be honest that is a little ridiculous. I know that there are characters such as boba, luke HoY that can do the same thing if they roll 20's or 19's in luke's case, but lets face it, having to roll a 20 with no chance to reroll it, and having to roll a 17, 18,19, 20 with 2 force points to reroll three attacks IS WAY DIFFERENT. Luke hero of yavin is a little close with needing a 19, 20, to do his, but he also has 60 hitpoints a 16 defense, and an 8 attack sure he can shoot and you can beef up his attack and all that great stuff but he still has 60 hitpoint and will get killed easily.
I also am not disregarding the counters to mace, sure parry/and makashi are great counters to him, and block/defense with MotF2 are good counters to him, but the characters (as of right now) that have those abilities are just not good enough to take him out.

To Weeks, yes I am saying that a squad with only Mace Windu, Yoda on Kybuck, panaka r2d2, mas, and filler has won 20+ games and only lost one, that is what happened, and you know the person that was playing against this mace windu squad, I am sure you would agree that he is a good player. Were all of those wins luck? I would hope so so that my eyes may be opened to this balance I hear everyone talking about, and so that I can make a post on here saying guess what everyone I was wrong Mace Windu is not tier 1. I would love nothing more then that, well except maybe Mace Windu steamrolling everything and then going see I told you so, while everyone else said... That was all luck lol. Seriously I hope that he is everything everyone says he is so that as a communitty we can all go, wow the playtesters had it right, and move on with our lives and the next time a piece comes out like this everyone can go remember that time you thought Mace was broken, and the play testers said you are crazy guess what chances are the play testers are right again.